A Three-Horse Race: The Premier League Title Favourites

If you divide the Premier League into thirds, we are entering the final third of the season. At this juncture, the main contenders have demonstrated their potential and will be cautiously optimistic about their chances of securing the ultimate prize in May.

In this blog, I will break down all the key information as we analyse the run-in for the 2023/2024 Premier League season. This analysis will cover the teams in contention, compare each team's remaining fixtures, examine their current form and head-to-head records, and conclude with my prediction.

The Three-Horse Race

Introduction to the Title Race

This year's title race is generating more excitement than previous seasons, with the top three teams separated by just 4 points—a gap that could shrink to just two if Manchester City wins their game in hand. Unlike in past seasons, where typically only two teams were in viable contention, this year more than two teams are battling it out until the final stages.

Now, well into February and over two-thirds through the season, there are still three months of football left to play. During this time, a lot can change. Historically, the most settled team usually clinches the league, with calm and composed players and teams emerging as the favourites. Last season illustrated that a title race is never over until it's mathematically certain, with Arsenal blowing an 8-point lead as Manchester City, the serial winners, closed in.

Entering this part of the season, we recognise the real title contenders who have proven themselves so far. The excitement for many fans lies in the current three-horse race, a scenario we haven't seen in a long time. For the last 5 or 6 seasons, the title race has been a two-horse battle primarily between Liverpool and Manchester City, with City prevailing most of the time.

However, last season was different. Arsenal led for most of the season but ultimately fell short in experience and composure, losing to Pep Guardiola's impeccable team. This season, it's clear Arsenal's campaign was not a one-season wonder, as they are right in the fight alongside Manchester City.

Conversely, Liverpool's previous season was a blunder, failing to qualify for the Champions League. Since then, Liverpool has been building momentum and now finds themselves in pole position with just 13 games remaining. The current league table:

Position	Team	MP	GD	Pts
1	Liverpool	25	35	57
2	Arsenal	25	36	55
3	Man City	24	31	53

The current standings present a perfect scenario for neutrals: one team leads on points, another has the highest goal difference, and the third holds a game in hand, making for a close and exciting race.

This season has been too close to call. Liverpool, initially off their best, now tops the table. Arsenal hasn't been as clinical in front of goal as last season, which was expected given their explosive performance last year. Despite a goal shortage, Arsenal has remained competitive, thanks to their impressive defence. Meanwhile, Manchester City has shown vulnerabilities in defence and hasn't hit their stride yet.

What's concerning for Liverpool and Arsenal is that Manchester City is just a few points off the top, despite not being at their sharpest and dealing with injuries. More worrisome is that this time of year is when City traditionally ramps up, rarely dropping points from now until the season's end.

Teams in Contention

Liverpool

Among the three teams, Liverpool has arguably experienced the most fluctuations. The summer saw significant changes, including the departure of their captain Jordan Henderson, and more shockingly, Jurgen Klopp announced he would leave the club at the end of the season. These off-the-pitch changes seemed to mirror the team's early-season performances, reflecting a transition phase with key players like Henderson and Firmino leaving. Despite these challenges, Liverpool has managed to capitalise on dropped points from City and Arsenal, now leading the Premier League without dominating headlines.

The impact of Klopp's departure announcement on the team remains to be seen—whether it will galvanise the squad to secure a departing Premier League trophy for him or if emotions will hinder their performance.

Key Players: Darwin Nunez, Moh Salah, and Virgil Van Dijk are pivotal for Liverpool. Nunez's sharpness has been notable, creating numerous chances, though not converting all. Van Dijk has returned to form, significantly contributing to Liverpool's resurgence this season.

Arsenal

Arteta's Arsenal has impressed this season, sitting just two points off the lead despite a less vibrant performance compared to last year. The team has reversed roles from last season; their electric attack has dimmed, but their defence has become the league's strongest, compensating for their reduced attacking finish.

The adequacy of Gabriel Jesus and Eddie Nketiah to provide the necessary goals for a league win has been questioned. Despite this, Arsenal boasts exceptional creators like Odegaard, Saka, and Trossard, who have performed excellently in recent games.

Key Players: William Saliba, Martin Odegaard, Bukayo Saka, and Declan Rice. The summer acquisition of Declan Rice, despite his hefty price tag, has made Arsenal more cohesive. Saliba, in particular, has been a defensive linchpin, bringing a calmness previously missing.

Manchester City

Manchester City has been the team to beat over the last decade, with Pep Guardiola making them seem invincible. Following their treble-winning season, there's been a slight dip in their usual standard, understandable given their consistent success. Guardiola's high expectations are likely why City remains formidable in the season's final stages.

Injuries have been a setback for City, with Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland facing significant time out. Their fitness will be crucial for City's title chances.

Key Players: Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne, and Erling Haaland. Their fitness is paramount; their presence makes City the favourite, showcasing the depth of talent in their squad.

Remaining Fixtures

Below is a list of all of the remaining fixtures for each side with a colour code to determine to the difficulty of each game.

Liverpool	Arsenal	Manchester City
-	-	Brentford (H)
Luton (H)	Newcastle (H)	Bournemouth (A)
Notts Forest (A)	Sheff Utd (A)	Man Utd (H)
Man City (H)	Brentford (H)	Liverpool (A)
Everton (A)	Chelsea (H)	Brighton (A)
Brighton (H)	Man City (A)	Arsenal (H)
Sheff Utd (H)	Luton (H)	Aston Villa (H)
Man Utd (A)	Brighton (A)	Crystal Palace (A)
Crystal Palace (H)	Aston Villa (H)	Luton (H)
Fulham (A)	Wolves (A)	Tottenham (A)
West Ham (A)	Tottenham (A)	Notts Forest (A)
Tottenham (H)	Bournemouth (H)	Wolves (H)
Aston Villa (A)	Man Utd (A)	Fulham (A)
Wolves (H)	Everton (H)	West Ham (H)

Who Has It the Easiest?

According to my color-coded analysis, Manchester City has the most favourable set of fixtures, with a total of 8 green. Liverpool, however, has 7 green fixtures but one less game to play, coupled with a points advantage. Consequently, the fixture run-in appears to favour Liverpool the most.

Who Has It the Hardest?

Both Liverpool and Manchester City face a total of 3 red games, indicating matches against top 5 opponents. However, Manchester City must confront both of their title competitors in their remaining games, whereas Liverpool and Arsenal have already played each other. This suggests that Manchester City faces the toughest set of games among the three teams.

Liverpool and Manchester City have a blend of challenging and easier fixtures, while Arsenal's schedule consists more consistently of medium-difficulty games, sprinkled with occasional harder and easier matches. This assessment is based on the opponents and whether the game is home or away, but it does not account for other factors like both teams' form going into the match, their league standings, and the number of remaining games.

There are a few potential "decider" matches for all three teams. Manchester City's visit to Anfield could offer both Arsenal and City an opportunity to surpass Liverpool. Conversely, a Liverpool victory could leave City trailing by potentially 4 points, significantly shifting momentum toward Klopp's team.

Shortly afterward, Manchester City will host Arsenal at the Etihad, marking a critical match for both sides. This fixture is especially vital for Arsenal, who have historically struggled in this away game. Although City will be the favourites, Arsenal's previous success against Guardiola's team in the reverse fixture at the Emirates might give them a fighting chance to secure an upset.

Current Form and Momentum

Let's take a look at the form guide for each time in the last 5 games.

Team	Most Recent Result
Liverpool	4-1 vs. Brentford	3-1 vs. Burnley	3-1 vs. Arsenal	4-1 vs. Chelsea	4-0 vs. Bournemouth
Arsenal	5-0 vs. Burnley	6-0 vs. West Ham	3-1 vs. Liverpool	2-1 vs. Nott. Forest	5-0 vs. Crystal Palace
Man City	1-1 vs. Chelsea	2-0 vs. Everton	3-1 vs. Brentford	3-1 vs. Burnley	3-2 vs. Newcastle

As indicated by the swath of green, all three teams are in winning form, with only one defeat in 15 games—a clash between two of the title contenders. Arsenal leads the form table with a perfect 15 points from 15, highlighted by a remarkable 3-1 victory at home against Liverpool.

Manchester City's flawless record was marred in their most recent game, where Chelsea managed to secure a 1-1 draw despite City's numerous missed opportunities. This game underscored Erling Haaland's mortality as he missed 21 chances, a season record he now shares with Darwin Nunez. While uncharacteristic of Haaland, it does show that Manchester City is not unbeatable, offering hope to the other contenders, especially Arsenal, that City can be bested.

Since the break, Arsenal has been electrifying, dispelling any doubts about their goal-scoring capabilities. Scoring 21 goals in five games and conceding only two is no small feat, and they are undoubtedly eager for the upcoming City match while riding this wave of high morale.

Liverpool, meanwhile, has had to grapple with the impending departure of their esteemed leader, Jurgen Klopp, at the season's end. Although potentially distracting, this has not significantly impacted their performance on the field. Apart from being outplayed by Arsenal, Liverpool has looked formidable, even in the absence of Moh Salah due to his AFCON commitments.

Who has the edge?

Determining who has the upper hand in this tightly contested title race is challenging due to each team's distinct strengths and vulnerabilities, adding layers of excitement. Manchester City, with their history of success, are perceived as the most formidable opponents. The pivotal match at the Etihad against Arsenal could significantly influence the title's trajectory.

Should Manchester City secure a victory over Arsenal, they would not only gain a points advantage over them but also position themselves strongly for the run-in, benefitting from a series of four easier (green) fixtures to conclude their season. Conversely, an Arsenal victory at the Etihad would not just result in a substantial six-point swing in their favour but also deliver a profound psychological impact.

The scepticism surrounding Arsenal's capability to sustain their form till the season's end has been a topic of discussion, especially considering their falter last season, which ultimately allowed Manchester City to clinch the title. Nevertheless, this season, Arsenal appears more composed and mature, bolstered by strategic additions like Declan Rice in midfield and David Raya in goal, instilling a greater sense of calm and assurance within the team. A win against City, combined with their recent triumph over Liverpool, could bolster their confidence, prompting them to ask, "Why not us?"

Liverpool, on the other hand, is acutely aware that any slip-up could be costly. Their past experiences of coming agonisingly close to the title, only to be edged out by City despite achieving over 90 points—a total that would typically secure the championship in any other season—have taught them the importance of relentless pursuit. This mentality, that victory must be achieved at all costs from this point forward, will be paramount if they wish to secure the league and offer Klopp a fitting farewell. It's a situation that places the destiny of the title firmly in their hands, an aspect that could be seen as either an advantage or an added pressure.

Impact of External Competitions

The best teams boast the largest squads, a necessity to manage the demanding schedule of fixtures, especially during this critical phase of the season. The more matches played, the higher the risk of fatigue and injury. However, playing fewer competitions can increase the pressure to succeed in those you remain in, a situation that may have contributed to Arsenal's challenges last season.

Liverpool stands out as the only team still competing across all fronts. They are gearing up for the League Cup final against Chelsea this weekend. A victory could unleash a wave of confidence, spurring them on to seek further glory. Although they are not in the Champions League, their participation in the Europa League might result in more manageable fixtures. This could give Liverpool an advantage in balancing their schedule compared to Arsenal and Manchester City, who are both contending in the latter stages of the Champions League.

Arsenal, on the other hand, is the sole team among the three to have been eliminated from the FA Cup, leaving them to concentrate on the league and the Champions League. This presents a beneficial equilibrium of competing in two major tournaments without the exhaustion of additional matches faced by Liverpool and Manchester City. While every elite club aspires to win every available trophy, each team has its own priorities.

For Arsenal, clinching the Champions League is paramount, a prestigious accolade they have yet to secure. Liverpool, meanwhile, is focused on the Premier League, aiming to enhance their solitary title under Klopp, which was somewhat diminished by COVID-19 restrictions on fan attendance.

Manchester City has set their standards exceptionally high, having achieved a treble just last season. Their objective is clear: to replicate that success. Anything less would be deemed a slight let-down, given the lofty expectations they have established for themselves.

Predictions

Writing this blog about the Premier League title race hasn't simplified my predictions; in fact, it's made the outcome seem even more uncertain due to the varying factors such as league standings, current form, and historical performances.

However, despite seeming somewhat unoriginal, Manchester City consistently emerges as the favourite. Their slight dip in form notwithstanding, they are just a victory away from topping the table (considering their game in hand) and have an advantageous schedule for their final four matches. Their extensive experience and history of success mean they are well-prepared and unlikely to be intimidated by the challenges ahead.

Liverpool, too, has demonstrated their resilience and competitiveness over the past five years, securing their first league title in three decades and finally shaking off that burden. Currently, they have the advantage of controlling their destiny, but their play doesn't seem as seamless and dominant as in previous seasons, suggesting they might fall short against Guardiola's squad once more.

Arsenal stands as the dark horse in this race, aiming to replicate or surpass their success from over two decades ago during their "Invincibles" season. Mikel Arteta has revitalised the team with a dynamic group of young talents. They came close last year and undoubtedly learned valuable lessons from their shortcomings. The question remains: Can they elevate their performance this season?

A few games ago, Arsenal's prospects seemed dim due to their dire need for a prolific striker akin to Haaland or Salah. Yet, their recent scoring spree has reignited their chances. Their victories over Liverpool and Manchester City this season have proven their capability to outplay the league's best. However, sustaining this level under mounting pressure is the real test. In my view, a win at the Etihad could significantly boost their title chances, given their current form. However, winning the Premier League involves more than just skill; mental fortitude and resilience are just as crucial in the latter stages of the season.

Consequently, Manchester City remains my pick for the title winners, possibly extending the race to the final day. I anticipate all three teams will remain competitive due to favourable fixtures and their involvement in other competitions. If Arsenal advances to the Champions League's later rounds and maintains their current form, I suspect they might prioritise European glory over the domestic league. Arsenal's current performance arguably places them above Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain, trailing only behind Real Madrid and Manchester City in the competition.

Liverpool will undoubtedly continue to compete fiercely, possibly favouring a season rich in cup victories. I predict they will clinch the League Cup against Chelsea, advance far in the Europa League, and have a strong chance in the FA Cup.

As an Arsenal supporter, my ultimate dream is for Arsenal to secure both the Premier League and Champions League titles. While it may be a lofty aspiration, in football, dreams can sometimes become reality.

Conclusion

That concludes my analysis of the three-way Premier League title race. The future until May is uncertain. Could Spurs make a surprising late surge into the title contention? It's possible. However, it appears that these three teams—best positioned and most stable—will be the ones battling fiercely for supremacy. Watching the developments unfold promises excitement, and ideally, we'll witness a three-sided contest on the season's final day.

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